ISLAMABAD: After hitting a historic high of $5,595 per ounce earlier this year, gold prices have entered a consolidation phase, with experts predicting range-bound movement for the next two to four months.
According to market reports, gold witnessed an 8 percent correction in September after the US 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5 percent, while the US Dollar Index surged above 101. Leading financial institutions have issued mixed but cautiously optimistic forecasts for the remainder of 2026. According to ICICI Bank, Elara Capital and LKP Securities, gold is expected to trade between $4,200 and $4,600 per ounce for the rest of 2026.
In the local market, this translates to around Rs 148,000 to Rs 154,000 per 10 grams. Goldman Sachs has projected gold to reach $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, citing continued buying by central banks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Meanwhile, JP Morgan has given the most bullish outlook, forecasting an average price of $6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, rising to $6,300 by the end of 2027.
Analysts say the key support level for gold is $4,250. If the price falls below $4,265, it could retest $4,000, while a close above $4,400 would signal the end of the current correction.
On the global front, central banks remain the biggest buyers, with 45 percent of central banks adding gold to their reserves in the third quarter of 2026, compared to 32 percent in 2021. So far this year, central banks have already purchased around 130 tonnes of gold.
Market experts believe that US bond yields, the strength of the dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will be the main factors determining the future trend of gold. Experts advise investors to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy rather than chasing highs during the current consolidation phase.
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