Global oil prices have surged after the US and Israeli attacks on Iran as Brent crude rose 10 percent to around $80 a barrel in over-the-counter trading.
Analysts said prices could reach $100 a barrel if the situation continues, while the disruption to oil shipments in the Gulf has created uncertainty in the global market. According to ICIS director Ajay Parmar, the biggest impact is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 percent of the world’s oil shipments pass through this route. Several tankers, oil majors and trading houses have stopped shipping oil, fuel and LNG through this waterway. If the closure is prolonged, prices could even go above $100 a barrel.
OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day from April 1, which is only 0.2 percent of global demand. However, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased their exports to bring some stability to the market. According to Jorge Leon, an expert at Risted Energy, some oil shipments are possible through the Saudi and Abu Dhabi pipelines despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but there will be a total shortage of 8 to 10 million barrels per day.
Asian countries have also started considering their stocks and alternative routes, and India is considering increasing its reliance on Russian oil to make up for a possible shortage from the Gulf. RBC analyst Halima Croft warned that oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel in the event of a war with Iran.
Analysts are a little less optimistic and expect prices to remain above $90 per barrel in the near future.
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